How unpredictable are the algorithms that idenify the cheapest split ticket options?

[Deafdoggie]

My understanding is that Trainline want to keep the number of tickets down and aren't fussed at being undercut by Trainsplit.

As long as Trainsplit (and, by extension, the forum's site) identifies the cheapest combination, then I am happy and nothing unexpected is happening.

However, if anyone sees that Trainline (or any other provider) identifies a cheaper combination for any given journey, please do let me know, and I will ensure that this is investigated and passed onto the relevant person; we can usually get it sorted within 24 hours!

It is very rare this happens; the last time was 5 months ago.

Currently Trainline are offering 10th August Kings Cross to Inverness on 12:00 through train at £54.29
The forums site has no fares at all on this service!
LNER have it for sale at £52.20

The forums site offers the 12:18 with 1 change for £111.80 or £110.02 with 2 changes and same arrival and departure times.

The return a week later, Trainline offer £58.99 for the through train. The forums site has no fares at all for any train. LNER have it for £56.70

All fares quoted are one adult single and include all booking fees.

Anyone looking for cheapest fares is going to book with LNER regardless of how much work any other provider has put in to their website. It's exactly the sort of journey people are going to book in advance-you don't go London to Inverness on a whim!
As it happens, I'm actually coming back from Aberdeen and trainline offer a split (on the through train) that LNER don't, so even with the booking fee, it was cheaper. The forums site offers no fares at all on that date.
Having been watching the fares in previous weeks, the advances generally seem to sell out before the forums site starts selling them, so you have to buy them from LNER or Trainline. As seen above, by the time the forums site release tickets, prices are approaching double.

 

[MrJeeves]

Currently Trainline are offering 10th August Kings Cross to Inverness on 12:00 through train at £54.29
The forums site has no fares at all on this service!

Because we don't yet have access to the extended booking horizons. Yet.

 

[Adam Williams]

Currently Trainline are offering 10th August Kings Cross to Inverness on 12:00 through train at £54.29
The forums site has no fares at all on this service!
LNER have it for sale at £52.20

Haven't we gone over this issue before in numerous other threads, though?

LNER have configured extended horizon services such that if you ask the industry's reservation system for availability for these services and you're not asking as the "right entity", you'll just get no fares back by default. That's how LNER have decided to configure things, it's not a problem of Raileasy's making.

That doesn't mean it's not something being looked into more broadly.

 

[miklcct]

There are a lot of sensible routeings, let alone crazy ones, which have disappeared as greedy train companies, such as EMR for example, wanted to charge more than other companies that priced tickets valid on their routes, and didn't want to be undercut.

How can we stop this from happening?

 

[yorkie]

Currently Trainline are offering 10th August Kings Cross to Inverness on 12:00 through train at £54.29
The forums site has no fares at all on this service!
LNER have it for sale at £52.20

The forums site offers the 12:18 with 1 change for £111.80 or £110.02 with 2 changes and same arrival and departure times.

The return a week later, Trainline offer £58.99 for the through train. The forums site has no fares at all for any train. LNER have it for £56.70

All fares quoted are one adult single and include all booking fees.

This appears to be down to LNER's extended booking horizon; LNER are acting in an anticompetetive way.

Anyone looking for cheapest fares is going to book with LNER regardless of how much work any other provider has put in to their website.

We often offer cheaper fares than the LNER website.

It's exactly the sort of journey people are going to book in advance-you don't go London to Inverness on a whim!

Two months time isn't a whim.

As it happens, I'm actually coming back from Aberdeen and trainline offer a split (on the through train) that LNER don't, so even with the booking fee, it was cheaper. The forums site offers no fares at all on that date.

Again that will be down to the booking horizons.

Having been watching the fares in previous weeks, the advances generally seem to sell out before the forums site starts selling them, so you have to buy them from LNER or Trainline. As seen above, by the time the forums site release tickets, prices are approaching double.

Do you have any evidence of this? If you do, then this could be good evidence to use against LNER.

The fare for 6th of July is £60; a little higher than £54, but not double.

I've seen plenty of examples where the extended booking horizon fares can initially be more expensive, and then get reduced, but whatever the level of fares, it's at best sharp practice, and at worst it could potentially be unlawful behaviour by LNER.

 

[Deafdoggie]

I've never travelled with LNER before, so I wasn't aware they had gone rogue, the fact they are on trainline too makes them seem generally available. But also, arguably, not anti-competitive as a third party can sell them.
I've just been checking school holiday dates. There don't seem to be many advances released, but in peak times they're gone quite quick.
You just asked to be made aware of when the forums site wasn't cheapest, so I was making you aware. But it appears you already were aware.

 

[redreni]

Do you have any evidence of this? If you do, then this could be good evidence to use against LNER.

The fare for 6th of July is £60; a little higher than £54, but not double.

I've seen plenty of examples where the extended booking horizon fares can initially be more expensive, and then get reduced, but whatever the level of fares, it's at best sharp practice, and at worst it could potentially be unlawful behaviour by LNER.

I agree evidence of the fares going up would be useful evidence.

On the other hand, even if LNER were able to show, for instance, that the fares were as likely to fall as they were to rise during the period when they were restricting the ability to sell tickets to themselves and their associates, I can't see how that would constitute any sort of defence?

Customers don't have a crystal ball. Most organisations that pay travel expenses advise people to book trains as early as possible. Most passengers who know their travel dates in advance also prefer to book early when they see a price that looks reasonable - waiting and seeing may sometimes result in a small saving but can very easily result in a significant increase in cost.

I have a number of real-world examples from the 2023-24 football season where I bought advances from other retailers and this was almost always solely because of the booking horizon issue. I will have booking references, booking dates, travel dates, stations from and to etc.

If you message me I'd be quite happy to provide a statement attesting that I wanted to buy the tickets from the forum's site and explaining my reasoning for taking my business elsewhere when a cheap fare was available direct from the TOC while no fares at all were yet available from the forum's site.

The value of the transactions we're talking about probably isn't very large at all, to be honest, but you might think it'd be worth having for illustrative purposes or as part of a larger bundle of evidence if you're thinking of taking the matter further, taking advice etc.

 

[Deafdoggie]

I've seen plenty of examples where the extended booking horizon fares can initially be more expensive, and then get reduced, but whatever the level of fares, it's at best sharp practice, and at worst it could potentially be unlawful behaviour by LNER.

Lots of businesses do this in lots of industries. It's simply supply and demand. You set a price, if it sells well you put the price up, if it doesn't, you drop the price. It's business school day 1 page 1 stuff.

 

[MrJeeves]

Lots of businesses do this in lots of industries. It's simply supply and demand. You set a price, if it sells well you put the price up, if it doesn't, you drop the price. It's business school day 1 page 1 stuff.

Indeed: price elasticity of demand.

Doesn't mean consumers don't get annoyed about it, but it is very common. I think the bigger takeaway is that booking so far out in advance often isn't actually a benefit for the consumer in terms of cost.

 

[Deafdoggie]

Indeed: price elasticity of demand.

Doesn't mean consumers don't get annoyed about it, but it is very common. I think the bigger takeaway is that booking so far out in advance often isn't actually a benefit for the consumer in terms of cost.

My take on it is that I've now paid that, so it's something I don't have to pay, along with everything else, nearer to the date.
As with accommodation, once I've booked it, I stop looking. I don't need to know what everyone else is paying! If I'm happy with the price I paid, then I'm happy.
In this instance, it compared favourably with the coach fare which was the other option and which has been bookable for some time. But has been slowly creeping up.
For the price I paid I can't see it coming down by a significant amount, if at all.

 

[redreni]

Indeed: price elasticity of demand.

Doesn't mean consumers don't get annoyed about it, but it is very common. I think the bigger takeaway is that booking so far out in advance often isn't actually a benefit for the consumer in terms of cost.

That's true, but on the other hand if I want to go to Doncaster and Hull Trains are selling a ticket for £15 which the forum's site can't sell (which was a situation I found myself in last season), where's the potential upside to waiting? By how much, realistically, is that ticket going to come down in price? And even with savings rates at 4 or 5%, the interest foregone if you pay a £15 train fare now rather than nearer the time isn't a lot.

So I think it depends on how much the tickets are. If they're not much cheaper than the walk-up fare then waiting until nearer the time absolutely can make sense. I was doing precisely that for the return leg from Rochdale last season and then along came the RailSale and suddenly the advances became attractive enough to commit to.

But again, I don't think it's necessary to show that the rational consumer would always choose to book as far ahead as possible if they know their intended travel dates in order to make out a case that it is anticompetitive for TOCs to pick and choose which retailers can sell advance tickets for its trains during its extended booking horizon. It's enough that many of them would often prefer to do so.

 

[AlbertBeale]

How can we stop this from happening?

Do you mean stop there being crazy cheap fares, or stop rail companies "disappearing" them. If the latter, the trick is not to talk about them openly in places like this, and/or boast the the rail companies about them...

 

[alistairlees]

Lots of businesses do this in lots of industries. It's simply supply and demand. You set a price, if it sells well you put the price up, if it doesn't, you drop the price. It's business school day 1 page 1 stuff.

Advance fares in rail were originally supposed to only go up in price, once released, and never down in price. This was to support the "the further you book ahead, the cheaper it is" mantra. (There can be an exception to this rule when Advance tickets are released back into the pool after a Change of Journey by a customer)

 

[Deafdoggie]

Advance fares in rail were originally supposed to only go up in price, once released, and never down in price. This was to support the "the further you book ahead, the cheaper it is" mantra. (There can be an exception to this rule when Advance tickets are released back into the pool after a Change of Journey by a customer)

That was 40 years ago. Things change. You couldn't book online then.

 

[alistairlees]

That was 40 years ago. Things change. You couldn't book online then.

No, it wasn’t 40 years ago. It was around 10 years ago.

 

[miklcct]

Do you mean stop there being crazy cheap fares, or stop rail companies "disappearing" them. If the latter, the trick is not to talk about them openly in places like this, and/or boast the the rail companies about them...

I mean the latter, however, I would like the public to know and take advantage of them in order to undermine the fare structure, possibly by using open-source software.

For regulated fares, do fare regulation protect existing loopholes that they can't be removed by greedy train companies?

 

[TUC]

Advance fares in rail were originally supposed to only go up in price, once released, and never down in price. This was to support the "the further you book ahead, the cheaper it is" mantra. (There can be an exception to this rule when Advance tickets are released back into the pool after a Change of Journey by a customer)

That's just part of life. You buy a product at the supermarket this week, only to find it's dropped in the price the next week. Still better than everyone paying more on both weeks.

 

[alistairlees]

That's just part of life. You buy a product at the supermarket this week, only to find it's dropped in the price the next week. Still better than everyone paying more on both weeks.

No, it was part of the Advance ticket selling rules originally to not reduce the price after they had gone on sale.

 

[TUC]

No, it was part of the Advance ticket selling rules originally to not reduce the price after they had gone on sale.

But there's no reason for that rule to exist. You pay your money. You take your chances, just like any other product.

 

[MikeWh]

I would like the public to know and take advantage of them in order to undermine the fare structure, possibly by using open-source software.

How would you propose that the public get access to this without the pricing managers being able to see it too?

 

[miklcct]

How would you propose that the public get access to this without the pricing managers being able to see it too?

It's impossible. The fact that pricing managers can see them is a by-product of the public can see them, but even in the absence of open source software, pricing managers can write proprietary internal code to find them as well.

Therefore it's better that more people can take advantage of any loopholes before they are closed by pricing managers.

 

[Watershed]

It's impossible. The fact that pricing managers can see them is a by-product of the public can see them, but even in the absence of open source software, pricing managers can write proprietary internal code to find them as well.

Therefore it's better that more people can take advantage of any loopholes before they are closed by pricing managers.

Pricing Managers aren't software developers. They are generally people with a background in finance or revenue management - a completely different field. They aren't going to be developing any code of their own, and their budget to fix anomalous fares by getting a third party to write some software is essentially non-existent.

So in the absence of the kind of open source software you're describing, anomalies will only be closed when Pricing Managers are made aware of them through contact from Customer Services, posts on forums like this one, or their own research.

Most anomalies would be closed overnight if such open source software were to become available, so nobody would be able to take advantage of them. It is better that at least some people - those willing to put in the time and effort to find the anomalies - can make use of them, than no-one.

 

[miklcct]

Pricing Managers aren't software developers. They are generally people with a background in finance or revenue management - a completely different field. They aren't going to be developing any code of their own, and their budget to fix anomalous fares by getting a third party to write some software is essentially non-existent.

Isn't pricing managers' job similar to that of a data scientist? In order to produce optimal business strategy, they need to work on ticket sales, passenger footfall, train loading statistics, etc., over years of train running records. They also need a thorough understanding of the Routeing Guide, especially how it is implemented in journey planner software, in order for the fares to be targeted through journey planners to the target audience.

 

[Deafdoggie]

No, it wasn’t 40 years ago. It was around 10 years ago.

Well I definitely bought advance tickets (they were called Apex back then) 40 years ago. They had Apex 7-which had to bought at least 7 days in advance and Apex 14, which were cheaper but had to bought at least 14 days in advance.

 

[Wallsendmag]

Well I definitely bought advance tickets (they were called Apex back then) 40 years ago. They had Apex 7-which had to bought at least 7 days in advance and Apex 14, which were cheaper but had to bought at least 14 days in advance.

Or Apex and Superapex.

 

[CyrusWuff]

Isn't pricing managers' job similar to that of a data scientist? In order to produce optimal business strategy, they need to work on ticket sales, passenger footfall, train loading statistics, etc., over years of train running records. They also need a thorough understanding of the Routeing Guide, especially how it is implemented in journey planner software, in order for the fares to be targeted through journey planners to the target audience.

It entirely depends on how the TOC have set up their Commercial team.

In some cases (e.g. TOCs with few Advance Purchase flows) it's entirely possible they won't even have someone working on Pricing full-time given the bulk of the work will only be done once a year for the annual fare increase. (I'm well aware there are usually three opportunities a year, but I'd imagine that smaller TOCs just do everything in one hit.)