Southern Warning of Weather-Related Service Disruption

[Nicholas Lewis]

Despite GTR massively culling services when we have industrial have to give them credit that they don't cut and run like ScotRail do and normal service tonight despite the weather although nothing particularly untoward in Gatwick area.

 

[Horizon22]

Do we have more weather related outages now than we used to?

Yes, but then we are getting more extreme weather events. All of which was modelled to increase throughout the 2020s and 2030s about 20-30 years ago.

To all those complaining, it's just a warning of potential disruption with delays, cancellations and revisions. Pretty standard fare. Also it's Thursday into Friday suggesting late evening and early morning issues.

 

[TPO]

What is wrong with that statement? It prepares your customers for potential distribution and asks them to do likewise. It does not say trains will be stopped. It does not say "do not travel". It says: the weather is a bit bad and so your journey might be disrupted. Prepare accordingly.

Could you, perhaps, have created a storm in a tea cup?

PS on the northern edge of that yellow zone it is absolutely hoying it down but not vastly windy

it is not FINACNIAL risk aversion. It is risk aversion brought about by Caumont.

The statement about Carmont is relevant.

Network Rail buy in a specialist weather forecadt service, and that forecast is shared internally and with train operators.

A variation of only a degree Celsius can be difference between rain and snow, plus there is more rain expected behind the first system. The forecast rainfall totals are significant and the ground is already totally saturated.

Considering the Carmont lessons of what saturated ground+more rain+some wind can potentially result in, I would say that Network Rail and the TOCs have taken an approach that is defensible in hindsight i.e.they are taking the reasonably practical measures required to comply with the law, Carmont showing the standard they will be held to in hindsight..

If you think that's too risk averse I suggest taking it up with ORR and RAIB rather than castigating Network Rail and the Train Operators.

TPO

 

[SamYeager]

Yes, but then we are getting more extreme weather events. All of which was modelled to increase throughout the 2020s and 2030s about 20-30 years ago.

To all those complaining, it's just a warning of potential disruption with delays, cancellations and revisions. Pretty standard fare. Also it's Thursday into Friday suggesting late evening and early morning issues.

As mentioned above, the bit in bold is likely to lead people into just discounting such warnings precisely because they seem to happen with monotonous regularity. I'm sure HMT is paying close attention and may well be more inclined to reduce funds to the railway due to the perceived unreliabilty of this mode of transport.

 

[Horizon22]

As mentioned above, the bit in bold is likely to lead people into just discounting such warnings precisely because they seem to happen with monotonous regularity. I'm sure HMT is paying close attention and may well be more inclined to reduce funds to the railway due to the perceived unreliabilty of this mode of transport.

But if there are going to be delays, cancellations and alterations due to high winds / debris on the track / flooding etc. it is better to warn than have your head in the sand. Imagine the complaints there would be if a good service was expected and lines started being shut. On these forums it seems the railway can never win when it comes to disruption info for the weather!

Bleating about the “perceived unreliability” of the railway is one thing but operators work in the real world. Therefore by working alongside the NR forecasters and using past experience, they can estimate the impacts and advertise suitable warnings. Is the advance customer info going to be perfect every time? No, but the weather is one of the most complex things to predict.

As for your last point, if anything the railway (specifically Network Rail) needs more money for groundworks, drainage, vegetation management etc. as the climate changes; cutting funding would make it more unreliable.

 

[DarloRich]

If you think that's too risk averse I suggest taking it up with ORR and RAIB rather than castigating Network Rail and the Train Operators.

no castigation on my part - i think it is sensible advice

 

[LAX54]

This is part of the fragility to which I alluded. I have been unable to find a wind speed above 21mph on the south coast today from weather sites, so if a tree has come down in mid-winter (i.e. with no leaves to increase wind resistance) there must be questions about resilience, no matter who 'owns' the tree in question.

Wind against the trunk, and land that is waterlogged, would I think be enough to bring a tree down, many roads get blocked by fallen tress, yet no one says the council are to blame, as for wind / rain, it can be calm in one area, and just a mile down the road, be totally different !

 

[al78]

Maybe we should shut down everything in winter and stay home for 3 months in order to save ourselves from the terrible weather.

With industrial action, problems with the signalling system and unavailability of train crew, would I notice much difference I wonder.

 

[30907]

It’s rain a bit breezy a couple of cm,s of snow up north over the pennies, it’s normal winter weather all the disruption can be seen on the local news.

It was disruptive enough round here (Shipley) - but much less so a few miles to the NW. That's snow for you

 

[Amlag]

For those of you who still look out of train windows, take a good look out at the in places and not just in the countryside, where huge trees are growing even bigger and taller and almost entirely outside the railway boundary fences.

Convincing landowners, landlords and local authorities that potentially costly works to cut down and remove these large tall trees, often with difficult access, is a challenge for NR that increasingly has to be done.

 

[infobleep]

But if there are going to be delays, cancellations and alterations due to high winds / debris on the track / flooding etc. it is better to warn than have your head in the sand. Imagine the complaints there would be if a good service was expected and lines started being shut. On these forums it seems the railway can never win when it comes to disruption info for the weather!

Bleating about the “perceived unreliability” of the railway is one thing but operators work in the real world. Therefore by working alongside the NR forecasters and using past experience, they can estimate the impacts and advertise suitable warnings. Is the advance customer info going to be perfect every time? No, but the weather is one of the most complex things to predict.

As for your last point, if anything the railway (specifically Network Rail) needs more money for groundworks, drainage, vegetation management etc. as the climate changes; cutting funding would make it more unreliable.

I remember one year, may have been 2010 or 2011, when snow fell with no warning. I was going to travel from Guildford to Harrow and having woken up I saw one train on the National Rail Enquiries app getting delayed and more delayed until it vanished.

That's right it seemed to have been deleted. I don't know if Real Time Trains existed then.

That experience led to the emergency snow timetable. That was definitely better than chaos. Of course, if you were on a line that day which saw services and them with the emergency timetable didn't, I could appreciate why you might be less happy but I can understand why they might do that.

It also enabled me to have a faster journey to Harrow, due to better connections at Clapham Junction. A nice silver lining.

Not been any need for a snow emergency timetable for some years now. We need more snow in this part of the southeast.

 

[Horizon22]

I remember one year, may have been 2010 or 2011, when snow fell with no warning. I was going to travel from Guildford to Harrow and having woken up I saw one train on the National Rail Enquiries app getting delayed and more delayed until it vanished.

That's right it seemed to have been deleted. I don't know if Real Time Trains existed then.

That experience led to the emergency snow timetable. That was definitely better than chaos. Of course, if you were on a line that day which saw services and them with the emergency timetable didn't, I could appreciate why you might be less happy but I can understand why they might do that.

It also enabled me to have a faster journey to Harrow, due to better connections at Clapham Junction. A nice silver lining.

Not been any need for a snow emergency timetable for some years now. We need more snow in this part of the southeast.

Think it was probably late 2010, there was a large - and somewhat unexpected - snowfall across London & SE.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

Think it was probably late 2010, there was a large - and somewhat unexpected - snowfall across London & SE.

This was likely Saturday 18th December 2010. Several inches of snow, quite a lot for the London/SE area!

 

[infobleep]

This was likely Saturday 18th December 2010. Several inches of snow, quite a lot for the London/SE area!

It was a week day so won't have been that day.

I didn't mind having to take the day off work though, I was contracting at the time, as I love the snow.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

It was a week day so won't have been that day.

Couldn't have been Monday 2nd February 2009 could it?

We woke up to an unexpected 15 inches of snow overnight in Epsom that day - the forecast was 3 - 4 inches.

 

[infobleep]

Couldn't have been Monday 2nd February 2009 could it?

We woke up to an unexpected 15 inches of snow overnight in Epsom that day - the forecast was 3 - 4 inches.

No definitely later than that as I was still back at university at this point and it occurred when I was working.

I could work it out at some point. Just need to go through some old files. Anyway that's drifting too far away from this thread. So I'll leave it there.

 

[Snow1964]

Southern is back to warning of disruption due to rain

Since when has a few April showers or rainy day been justification for disruption.

Disruption is expected until approximately 12:00.

Customer advice:

Heavy rainfall is affecting the Southern, Gatwick Express and Thameslink networks, especially south of London and towards the South Coast

https://www.southernrailway.com/service-updates/service-updates?uq=638498890267130000#INCAEAB46E29C4D45C588AAFB731BD81634

 

[43066]

Southern is back to warning of disruption due to rain

Since when has a few April showers or rainy day been justification for disruption.

https://www.southernrailway.com/service-updates/service-updates?uq=638498890267130000#INCAEAB46E29C4D45C588AAFB731BD81634

A rather silly comment. We’ve just come through one of the wettest winters on record, and there has been consistently heavy rain in Kent and Sussex the last couple of days, so it’s a lot more than “a few April showers”.

Would you rather they didn’t warn of possible disruption and just let it happen with no notice?

 

[Snow1964]

A rather silly comment. We’ve just come through one of the wettest winters on record, and there has been consistently heavy rain in Kent and Sussex the last couple of days, so it’s a lot more than “a few April showers”.

Would you rather they didn’t warn of possible disruption and just let it happen with no notice?

Ok, but was more thinking the way it is worded, could be disruption in morning upto 11:59, but kind of implies zero disruption from midday. But I will accept if you don't find it silly worded as I do.

 

[43066]

Ok, but was more thinking the way it is worded, could be disruption at 11:59, but zero disruption from midday. But I will accept if you don't find it silly as I do.

It doesn’t say that, though? It notes that “disruption is expected until approximately midday”, which certainly doesn’t imply a hard cut-off at 1200.

 

[800001]

Ok, but was more thinking the way it is worded, could be disruption at 11:59, but zero disruption from midday. But I will accept if you don't find it silly as I do.

Look at all the land slips, sink holes etc caused by one of the longest wet periods we have had, rain over the next few days on already saturated ground will not help.

 

[Acey]

From the Environment Agency Website:

Flood alert for Groundwater flooding in South East London - GOV.UK

Flooding information and advice for the area: Areas at risk from Groundwater flooding including Caterham Bourne, Coulsdon Bourne, Beddington, Carshalton, Coulsdon, Kenley, Purley, South Croydon, Whyteleafe, Bromley, Bexley, Greenwich and Lewisham.

check-for-flooding.service.gov.uk

"Groundwater levels in East Surrey and South London have been rising throughout the winter following higher than average rainfall. Levels continued to increase through most of February and until the second half of March in response to heavy rainfall and storm events during the previous month"

I can well believe that, never known my garden to be so saturated!

 

[Deepgreen]

This latest warning from Southern talked of strong winds - the wind was a breeze widely inland and may have been a strong breeze on the coasts, but it was hardly going to be strong enough for disruption. The trouble is, while of course genuine risks of significant disruption need warnings, these are becoming more and more frequent, and I can't help thinking that TOCs (and Southern are the main offenders) are issuing them to cover themselves at any excuse. Yes, it has been extremely wet this winter and we had more heavy rain yesterday, but we didn't have the strong winds that Southern warned of, and, most significantly, none of the weather forecasts I saw mentioned anything about strong winds. The small low pressure area that brought the rain simply wasn't anywhere deep enough to generate the winds and was never forecast to be.